Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 55.38%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 22.68% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.58%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 (5.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.07%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong Ajax would win this match.
