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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 46.21%. A win for NAC Breda had a probability of 31.27% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.57%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest NAC Breda win was 1-2 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | NAC Breda |
46.21% ( 0.06) | 22.52% ( -0.03) | 31.27% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 65.23% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.77% ( 0.11) | 35.23% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.76% ( 0.12) | 57.24% ( -0.12) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.23% ( 0.06) | 15.77% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.1% ( 0.12) | 44.9% ( -0.12) |
| NAC Breda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.44% ( 0.04) | 22.56% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.85% ( 0.05) | 56.15% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | NAC Breda |
| 2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0) 1-0 @ 6.57% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.07% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.56% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 4.14% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.74% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.57% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.73% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)4-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.98% Total : 46.21% | 1-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.73% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.56% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.4% Total : 22.52% | 1-2 @ 7.29% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.3% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.62% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.34% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.35% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.24% ( 0)Other @ 3.24% Total : 31.27% |
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