SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | NAC Breda | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Willem II | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | MVV Maastricht | 6 | -3 | 8 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Heracles | 6 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | Jong AZ | 7 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | VVV-Venlo | 6 | 0 | 12 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 57.26%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Jong AZ had a probability of 20.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.92%) and 2-0 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for a Jong AZ win it was 0-1 (5.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Willem II in this match.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | Jong AZ |
57.26% ( 0.42) | 22.2% ( -0.11) | 20.55% ( -0.32) |
| Both teams to score 55.2% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.48% ( 0.05) | 43.52% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.09% ( 0.05) | 65.91% ( -0.05) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.03% ( 0.15) | 14.96% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.61% ( 0.29) | 43.39% ( -0.3) |
| Jong AZ Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.92% ( -0.29) | 35.08% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.17% ( -0.3) | 71.83% ( 0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | Jong AZ |
| 1-0 @ 9.97% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 9.47% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 6.28% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 6% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.98% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 2.85% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.13% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.72% Total : 57.26% | 1-1 @ 10.44% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.19% | 0-1 @ 5.5% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 5.47% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.97% Total : 20.55% |
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