Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 45.61%. A win for ADO Den Haag had a probability of 29.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest ADO Den Haag win was 1-2 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
-0.06) 
0.15) 
