SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 51.55%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 26.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.75%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-2 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
51.55% ( -1.53) | 22.35% ( 0.42) | 26.1% ( 1.11) |
| Both teams to score 61.84% ( -0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.01% ( -0.92) | 37.99% ( 0.92) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.74% ( -0.99) | 60.26% ( 0.99) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.07% ( -0.82) | 14.93% ( 0.82) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.68% ( -1.59) | 43.32% ( 1.59) |
| AFC Wimbledon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.69% ( 0.34) | 27.31% ( -0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.25% ( 0.44) | 62.75% ( -0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
| 2-1 @ 9.57% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 7.75% ( 0.12)2-0 @ 7.37% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 6.07% ( -0.21)3-0 @ 4.67% ( -0.21)3-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 2.89% ( -0.19)4-0 @ 2.22% ( -0.17)4-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.1)5-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.11)Other @ 4.1% Total : 51.55% | 1-1 @ 10.06% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 6.21% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 4.08% ( 0.18)3-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.29% Total : 22.34% | 1-2 @ 6.53% ( 0.22) 0-1 @ 5.29% ( 0.28)0-2 @ 3.43% ( 0.21)1-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 2.69% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.93% Total : 26.1% |
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