Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 41.2%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 32.8% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for AFC Wimbledon in this match.