Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 30.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.

Result
Burnley	Draw	Rochdale
43.2%	26.11%	30.7%

Both teams to score 52.44%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.17%

51.83%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.41%

73.59%

Burnley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.16%

23.84%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.99%

58.02%

Rochdale Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.85%

31.15%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.52%

67.48%

Score Analysis

Burnley 43.19%

Rochdale 30.7%

Draw 26.1%

Burnley	Draw	Rochdale
1-0 @ 10.64% 2-1 @ 8.9% 2-0 @ 7.63% 3-1 @ 4.26% 3-0 @ 3.65% 3-2 @ 2.48% 4-1 @ 1.53% 4-0 @ 1.31% Other @ 2.79% Total : 43.19%	1-1 @ 12.41% 0-0 @ 7.42% 2-2 @ 5.19% 3-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.1%	0-1 @ 8.66% 1-2 @ 7.24% 0-2 @ 5.05% 1-3 @ 2.82% 2-3 @ 2.02% 0-3 @ 1.96% Other @ 2.95% Total : 30.7%