SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 45.23%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 30.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 1-2 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chelsea | Draw | Middlesbrough |
45.23% ( -0.39) | 24.45% ( 0.03) | 30.32% ( 0.35) |
| Both teams to score 57.7% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.11% ( 0.02) | 44.88% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.76% ( 0.02) | 67.24% ( -0.02) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.03% ( -0.16) | 19.96% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.86% ( -0.26) | 52.13% ( 0.25) |
| Middlesbrough Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.09% ( 0.25) | 27.9% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.48% ( 0.31) | 63.52% ( -0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelsea | Draw | Middlesbrough |
| 2-1 @ 9.23% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 8.98% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 7.23% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 4.96% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.88% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 3.16% ( -0)4-1 @ 2% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.95% Total : 45.23% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.89% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 5.57% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.45% | 1-2 @ 7.31% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 4.54% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.11% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.93% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.81% Total : 30.32% |
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