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Premier League | Gameweek 21
Jan 13, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Stamford Bridge
FL

Chelsea
1 - 0
Fulham

Palmer (45+4' pen.)
Gusto (38'), Fernandez (58'), Disasi (75'), Silva (79'), Palmer (79')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Wilson (49')

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 71.8%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Fulham had a probability of 11.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 3-0 (8.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.64%), while for a Fulham win it was 1-2 (3.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.

Result
ChelseaDrawFulham
71.8% (0.197 0.2) 16.53% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06) 11.67% (-0.141 -0.14)
Both teams to score 54.23% (-0.258 -0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.4% (-0.096000000000004 -0.1)34.6% (0.092999999999996 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.46% (-0.107 -0.11)56.54% (0.104 0.1)
Chelsea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.54% (0.016000000000005 0.02)8.45% (-0.020099999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.66% (0.046000000000006 0.05)29.34% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
Fulham Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.24% (-0.295 -0.3)40.76% (0.293 0.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.66% (-0.266 -0.27)77.34% (0.26300000000001 0.26)
Score Analysis
    Chelsea 71.8%
    Fulham 11.67%
    Draw 16.53%
ChelseaDrawFulham
2-0 @ 10.51% (0.07 0.07)
2-1 @ 9.44% (-0.011999999999999 -0.01)
3-0 @ 8.66% (0.066000000000001 0.07)
1-0 @ 8.51% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
3-1 @ 7.77% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-0 @ 5.35% (0.046 0.05)
4-1 @ 4.8% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 3.49% (-0.029 -0.03)
5-0 @ 2.64% (0.025 0.02)
5-1 @ 2.37% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 2.15% (-0.016 -0.02)
6-0 @ 1.09% (0.012 0.01)
5-2 @ 1.06% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
6-1 @ 0.98% (0.003 0)
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 71.8%
1-1 @ 7.64% (-0.017 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.24% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
0-0 @ 3.45% (0.017 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.04% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 16.53%
1-2 @ 3.43% (-0.035 -0.04)
0-1 @ 3.09% (-0.01 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.39% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.27% (-0.022 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.03% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 1.47%
Total : 11.67%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Middlesbrough 1-0 Chelsea
Tuesday, January 9 at 8pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Chelsea 4-0 Preston
Saturday, January 6 at 5.30pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Luton 2-3 Chelsea
Saturday, December 30 at 12.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Chelsea 2-1 Crystal Palace
Wednesday, December 27 at 7.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Wolves 2-1 Chelsea
Sunday, December 24 at 1pm in Premier League
Last Game: Chelsea 1-1 Newcastle (4-2 pen.)
Tuesday, December 19 at 8pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Liverpool 2-1 Fulham
Wednesday, January 10 at 8pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Fulham 1-0 Rotherham
Friday, January 5 at 7.30pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Fulham 2-1 Arsenal
Sunday, December 31 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Bournemouth 3-0 Fulham
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Fulham 0-2 Burnley
Saturday, December 23 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Everton 1-1 Fulham (6-7 pen.)
Tuesday, December 19 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup


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