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EFL Cup | Quarter-Finals
Dec 19, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Vale Park
ML

Port Vale
0 - 3
Middlesbrough


Balmer (50'), Loft (60'), Iacovitti (80')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Howson (11'), Rogers (23'), Crooks (53')
Clarke (4'), Rogers (10')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Port Vale 3-2 Wigan
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Swansea 1-2 Middlesbrough
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Port Vale 1-3 Middlesbrough

For the first time in their cup run, Port Vale will go up against a team from a higher division, and we think that the gulf in quality could help Middlesbrough claim a relatively comfortable victory to seal their place the semi-finals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 40.79%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.34%) and 0-2 (6.35%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 2-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.

Result
Port ValeDrawMiddlesbrough
34.52% (0.079999999999998 0.08) 24.69% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 40.79% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Both teams to score 58.55% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.51% (0.027999999999999 0.03)44.49% (-0.029000000000003 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.14% (0.027999999999999 0.03)66.86% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)
Port Vale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.89% (0.058999999999997 0.06)25.11% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.19% (0.085000000000001 0.09)59.81% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.19% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)21.81% (0.023 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.97% (-0.037999999999997 -0.04)55.03% (0.038000000000004 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Port Vale 34.52%
    Middlesbrough 40.79%
    Draw 24.68%
Port ValeDrawMiddlesbrough
2-1 @ 7.96% (0.012 0.01)
1-0 @ 7.57% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-0 @ 5.23% (0.012 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.67% (0.012 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.79% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.41% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.27% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-2 @ 0.97% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 34.52%
1-1 @ 11.52%
2-2 @ 6.06% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-0 @ 5.48% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.42% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 24.68%
1-2 @ 8.77% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-1 @ 8.34% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
0-2 @ 6.35% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-3 @ 4.45% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.22% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.08%
1-4 @ 1.7% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-4 @ 1.23% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-4 @ 1.17% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 40.79%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Port Vale 3-2 Wigan
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Port Vale 3-3 Stevenage (3-4 pen.)
Tuesday, December 12 at 7.45pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Exeter 0-1 Port Vale
Saturday, December 9 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Bolton 2-0 Port Vale
Tuesday, December 5 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Stevenage 1-1 Port Vale
Saturday, December 2 at 3pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Port Vale 0-1 Derby
Tuesday, November 28 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Swansea 1-2 Middlesbrough
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Middlesbrough 1-2 Hull City
Wednesday, December 13 at 8pm in Championship
Last Game: Middlesbrough 0-2 Ipswich
Saturday, December 9 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Leeds 3-2 Middlesbrough
Saturday, December 2 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Middlesbrough 4-0 Preston
Tuesday, November 28 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Bristol City 3-2 Middlesbrough
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in Championship


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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