Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 49.24%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 27.23% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Derby County in this match.
-0) 
0) 
