With both teams playing safety-first football in the opening weeks of the campaign, it is hard to see too many goals being scored at Highbury Stadium on Tuesday.
Despite being likely to make several changes, the Toffees should be able to keep their League One opponents at arms length and marginally progress to the next round.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 56.8%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 21.8% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.36%) and 0-1 (8.29%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 2-1 (5.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Everton in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Everton.
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