Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 49.31%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Wigan Athletic had a probability of 25.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for a Wigan Athletic win it was 0-1 (7.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
-0.02) 
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