SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 44.23%. A win for Chelsea Under-21s had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.16%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest Chelsea Under-21s win was 1-2 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
| Result | ||
| MK Dons | Draw | Chelsea Under-21s |
44.23% ( 1.15) | 23.27% ( -0.03) | 32.5% ( -1.12) |
| Both teams to score 63.05% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.67% ( -0.25) | 38.33% ( 0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.39% ( -0.27) | 60.61% ( 0.27) |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.26% ( 0.37) | 17.74% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.58% ( 0.63) | 48.42% ( -0.63) |
| Chelsea Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.65% ( -0.74) | 23.35% ( 0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.69% ( -1.1) | 57.31% ( 1.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| MK Dons | Draw | Chelsea Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 9.01% ( 0.12) 1-0 @ 7.16% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 6.19% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 5.19% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.57% ( 0.17)4-1 @ 2.25% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.9% Total : 44.23% | 1-1 @ 10.42% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.55% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.27% | 1-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.16) 0-1 @ 6.03% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 3.68% ( -0.16)2-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.12)1-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.09)2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.05% Total : 32.5% |
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