SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lillestrom win with a probability of 70.38%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Sandefjord had a probability of 12.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lillestrom win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.71%), while for a Sandefjord win it was 1-2 (3.69%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lillestrom would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lillestrom | Draw | Sandefjord |
70.38% ( 0.04) | 16.9% ( -0.03) | 12.71% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 56.32% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.39% ( 0.14) | 33.6% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.58% ( 0.16) | 55.41% ( -0.16) |
| Lillestrom Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.48% ( 0.04) | 8.52% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.5% ( 0.1) | 29.49% ( -0.11) |
| Sandefjord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.56% ( 0.08) | 38.43% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.81% ( 0.07) | 75.18% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lillestrom | Draw | Sandefjord |
| 2-0 @ 9.93% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 8.15% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 8.06% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 7.8% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 5.02% ( 0)4-1 @ 4.8% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.73% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 2.47% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 2.37% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 1.02% ( 0)6-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.15% Total : 70.38% | 1-1 @ 7.71% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.54% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.27% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.19% Total : 16.9% | 1-2 @ 3.69% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.13% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 1.5% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.18% ( 0)Other @ 1.78% Total : 12.71% |
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