SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Molde win with a probability of 73.22%. A draw had a probability of 15% and a win for Sarpsborg 08 had a probability of 11.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Molde win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.36%) and 3-1 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.36%), while for a Sarpsborg 08 win it was 1-2 (3.36%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Molde would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Molde | Draw | Sarpsborg 08 |
73.22% ( 0) | 15.02% ( 0.05) | 11.76% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 61.14% ( -0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.58% ( -0.42) | 26.42% ( 0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.25% ( -0.54) | 46.75% ( 0.54) |
| Molde Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.75% ( -0.09) | 6.24% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 76.44% ( -0.26) | 23.56% ( 0.26) |
| Sarpsborg 08 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.21% ( -0.39) | 34.79% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.48% ( -0.42) | 71.52% ( 0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Molde | Draw | Sarpsborg 08 |
| 2-1 @ 8.82% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.36% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 8.16% ( -0)3-0 @ 7.72% ( 0.08)1-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.13)4-1 @ 5.66% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 3.14% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 2.97% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.04)6-1 @ 1.45% ( -0.03)6-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)Other @ 4.19% Total : 73.22% | 1-1 @ 6.36% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 4.66% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 2.17% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.31% Total : 15.02% | 1-2 @ 3.36% ( -0) 0-1 @ 2.29% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.08% Total : 11.76% |
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