Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 85.06%. A draw had a probability of 10.4% and a win for FC Twente had a probability of 4.57%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.52%) and 4-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.93%), while for a FC Twente win it was 0-1 (1.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.