SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 51.45%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for NAC Breda had a probability of 24.17%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.63%) and 0-2 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a NAC Breda win it was 1-0 (6.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
| Result | ||
| NAC Breda | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
24.17% ( -0.04) | 24.38% ( -0.04) | 51.45% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 52.91% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.13% ( 0.13) | 48.87% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.04% ( 0.12) | 70.96% ( -0.12) |
| NAC Breda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.31% ( 0.03) | 34.69% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.58% ( 0.03) | 71.42% ( -0.03) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.02% ( 0.08) | 18.98% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.47% ( 0.14) | 50.53% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| NAC Breda | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 6.97% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.13% ( -0)2-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.16% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.8% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.3% ( -0)Other @ 2.11% Total : 24.17% | 1-1 @ 11.58% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.59% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.1% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.37% | 0-1 @ 10.94% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 9.63% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 9.09% 1-3 @ 5.33% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 5.04% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.82% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 2.09% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.13% Total : 51.45% |
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