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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 43.84%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.92%) and 2-0 (6.02%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Ajax |
43.84% ( -0.37) | 23.13% ( -0.08) | 33.03% ( 0.45) |
| Both teams to score 63.77% ( 0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.52% ( 0.55) | 37.48% ( -0.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.3% ( 0.59) | 59.7% ( -0.59) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.44% ( 0.08) | 17.56% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.9% ( 0.13) | 48.1% ( -0.13) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.35% ( 0.51) | 22.65% ( -0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.72% ( 0.76) | 56.28% ( -0.76) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 6.92% ( -0.17)2-0 @ 6.02% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 5.18% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 3.49% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 2.25% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.03)Other @ 4% Total : 43.84% | 1-1 @ 10.27% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 6.64% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 3.98% ( -0.11)3-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.13% | 1-2 @ 7.63% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 5.91% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 4.39% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.78% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 3.29% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.4% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.25% Total : 33.03% |
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