SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 78.64%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 7.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.57%) and 1-0 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.44%), while for a Heracles win it was 0-1 (2.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heracles |
78.64% ( 0.18) | 13.66% ( -0.1) | 7.7% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 48.45% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.47% ( 0.2) | 33.53% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.66% ( 0.23) | 55.33% ( -0.23) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.21% ( 0.08) | 6.79% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 74.94% ( 0.21) | 25.06% ( -0.21) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.99% ( -0.06) | 48.01% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.76% ( -0.04) | 83.24% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-0 @ 11.79% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 10.57% ( 0.03)1-0 @ 8.77% ( -0.05)2-1 @ 8.65% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 5.22% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 3.82% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.85% ( -0)5-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.03)6-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.02)5-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.38% Total : 78.63% | 1-1 @ 6.44% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 3.26% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.79% Total : 13.66% | 0-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.95% Total : 7.7% |
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