This is expected to be a close affair between two sides in similar form, but having the home advantage on the final day of the season may just be enough to see the three points remain in Alkmaar.
The hosts have netted twice in each of their last two outings, and so they are likely to do so again, while they do not tend to keep clean sheets which is why there will be an opportunity for Waalwijk to get on the scoresheet.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 70.33%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 11.35%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.71%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.71%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 0-1 (4%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
2.09) 
-0.76) 
