While Gil Vicente will be looking to kick off their campaign on a high, they face a spirited Riga FC side who have won each of their four games in the qualifiers. The Latvian side head into Thursday on a run of seven wins from their last nine home games and we are backing them to maintain this fine record by claiming a vital first-leg victory against the Portuguese outfit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 38.89%. A win for Riga FC had a probability of 35.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.52%). The likeliest Riga FC win was 0-1 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.

Result
Gil Vicente	Draw	Riga FC
38.89%	25.88%	35.23%

Both teams to score 54.53% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.25% (

-0)

49.74%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.25% (

-0)

71.75%

Gil Vicente Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.88%

25.11%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.19% (

-0)

59.81%

Riga FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.82% (

-0)

27.18%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.41%

62.58% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Gil Vicente 38.89%

Riga FC 35.23%

Draw 25.87%

Gil Vicente	Draw	Riga FC
1-0 @ 9.43% 2-1 @ 8.49% 2-0 @ 6.52% 3-1 @ 3.91% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3% 3-2 @ 2.55% 4-1 @ 1.35% 4-0 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.6% Total : 38.89%	1-1 @ 12.28% 0-0 @ 6.82% 2-2 @ 5.53% 3-3 @ 1.11% Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.87%	0-1 @ 8.89% 1-2 @ 8% 0-2 @ 5.79% 1-3 @ 3.48% 0-3 @ 2.52% 2-3 @ 2.4% 1-4 @ 1.13% Other @ 3.02% Total : 35.23%