We said: Gil Vicente 2-1 Pacos de Ferreira
Gil Vicente have fallen off a cliff at the tail end of the season as they now risk their place in the Conference League qualification spot after a series of underwhelming results. However, looking at their home record against the Pacenses, we are tipping them to find their feet and return to winning ways, albeit by the odd goal.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 57.53%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 18.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (6.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.