SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 45.95%. A win for Celje had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.27%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Celje win was 1-2 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Celje |
45.95% ( 0.23) | 24.53% ( -0.06) | 29.51% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 56.97% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.36% ( 0.15) | 45.63% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.04% ( 0.15) | 67.95% ( -0.16) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.04% ( 0.15) | 19.95% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.88% ( 0.26) | 52.11% ( -0.27) |
| Celje Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.17% ( -0.05) | 28.82% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.32% ( -0.05) | 64.68% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Celje |
| 2-1 @ 9.29% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.27% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.01% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.01% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.93% Total : 45.95% | 1-1 @ 11.53% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.78% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.75% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.52% | 1-2 @ 7.17% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 7.16% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.59% Total : 29.51% |
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