Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 41.17%. A win for Celtic had a probability of 35.43% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.83%) and 2-0 (5.68%). The likeliest Celtic win was 1-2 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match.
