Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 62.69%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 18.79% and a draw had a probability of 18.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.49%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 2-1 (4.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.