Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 69.21%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 12.71%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.53%), while for a Heracles win it was 0-1 (3.75%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
