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Europa League | Playoffs | 1st Leg
Aug 18, 2022 at 7pm UK
Dnipro Arena

Dnipro-1
1 - 2
Larnaca

Svatok (90')
Sarapiy (63')
Sarapiy (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Altman (16'), Svatok (29' og.)
Gustavo (62'), Casas (90+3')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Mariupol 0-3 Dnipro-1
Friday, December 10 at 3pm in Ukrainian Premier League
Last Game: Partizan 2-2 Larnaca
Thursday, August 11 at 8pm in Europa League

We said: Dnipro-1 1-2 AEK Larnaca

Considering the gulf in quality and experience between the sides, AEK Larnaca head into Thursday as clear favourites to come out on top. While we expect Dnipro-1 to put up a fight in a bid to claim a headline-grabbing victory, we are backing the Cyprus outfit to claim a first-leg win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dnipro-1 win with a probability of 44.29%. A win for AEK Larnaca had a probability of 28.55% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Dnipro-1 win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest AEK Larnaca win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AEK Larnaca in this match.

Result
Dnipro-1DrawAEK Larnaca
44.29% (0.021000000000001 0.02) 27.16% (-0.0040000000000013 -0) 28.55% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 48.17%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.21% (0.007000000000005 0.01)56.79% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.27% (0.004999999999999 0)77.73% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Dnipro-1 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.5% (0.013000000000005 0.01)25.5% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.66% (0.018999999999998 0.02)60.34% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02)
AEK Larnaca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.66% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)35.34% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.9% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)72.1% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Dnipro-1 44.29%
    AEK Larnaca 28.55%
    Draw 27.15%
Dnipro-1DrawAEK Larnaca
1-0 @ 12.31%
2-1 @ 8.75% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 8.41% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-1 @ 3.99% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 3.83% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 2.07% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.36% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 1.31% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 44.29%
1-1 @ 12.8% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 9.01% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-2 @ 4.55%
Other @ 0.79%
Total : 27.15%
0-1 @ 9.37% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 6.66% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 4.88% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-3 @ 2.31% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-3 @ 1.69% (-0.002 -0)
2-3 @ 1.58% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 28.55%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Mariupol 0-3 Dnipro-1
Friday, December 10 at 3pm in Ukrainian Premier League
Last Game: Dnipro-1 3-1 Chornomorets
Monday, December 6 at 5.30pm in Ukrainian Premier League
Last Game: Dnipro-1 5-1 Vorskla
Saturday, November 27 at 5.30pm in Ukrainian Premier League
Last Game: Dnipro-1 3-1 Oleksandriya
Saturday, November 20 at 5.30pm in Ukrainian Premier League
Last Game: Inhulets 0-1 Dnipro-1
Sunday, November 7 at 12pm in Ukrainian Premier League
Last Game: Dnipro-1 4-0 Minai
Monday, November 1 at 3pm in Ukrainian Premier League
Last Game: Partizan 2-2 Larnaca
Thursday, August 11 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Larnaca 2-1 Partizan
Thursday, August 4 at 5pm in Europa League
Last Game: Larnaca 1-1 Midtjylland (3-4 pen.)
Tuesday, July 26 at 4.30pm in Champions League
Last Game: Midtjylland 1-1 Larnaca
Tuesday, July 19 at 6.45pm in Champions League
Last Game: Gent 3-0 Larnaca
Thursday, August 15 at 7.30pm in Europa League Qualifying
Last Game: Larnaca 1-1 Gent
Thursday, August 8 at 4.30pm in Europa League Qualifying


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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