Streich should not need to go with a full-strength side to pick up three points here, but if matchday three's hat-trick hero Grifo starts, then another healthy scoreline could be in the offing.
TSC may need a win to keep any realistic hope of progression alive, even as a third-place Europa Conference League entrant, but this task looks insurmountable for the Serbian runners-up.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 54.94%. A win for Backa Topola had a probability of 22.72% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Backa Topola win was 1-2 (5.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
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