Athletic may be unbeaten in four competitive matches, but they have failed to any of their last three away matches, and with that in mind, we think that the Basque side will have to settle for a point from Thursday's trip to Bulgaria.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ludogorets Razgrad win with a probability of 48.43%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 26.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ludogorets Razgrad win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
12.66) 
-1.4) 
