Sheriff are no strangers to these types of big-night encounters, and they will be expecting to secure a healthy advantage to take to Borisov Arena next week. However, BATE have shown that they carry an attacking threat, and we expect they will get something to show for their effort in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sheriff Tiraspol win with a probability of 55.7%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for BATE Borisov had a probability of 18.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sheriff Tiraspol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.96%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%), while for a BATE Borisov win it was 0-1 (7.75%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sheriff Tiraspol would win this match.
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