SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 5 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Austria | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Sweden | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 4 | -9 | 1 |
| 5 | Estonia | 5 | -14 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 36.97%. A win for Austria had a probability of 36.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.11%) and 0-2 (6.46%). The likeliest Austria win was 1-0 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Austria | Draw | Belgium |
36.19% ( -0.14) | 26.84% ( -0.05) | 36.97% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 51.43% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.28% ( 0.21) | 53.72% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.8% ( 0.18) | 75.2% ( -0.18) |
| Austria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.49% ( 0.02) | 28.51% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.71% ( 0.03) | 64.29% ( -0.02) |
| Belgium Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.95% ( 0.22) | 28.05% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.29% ( 0.27) | 63.71% ( -0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Austria | Draw | Belgium |
| 1-0 @ 10.03% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.3% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.35% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.63% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.13% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.7% Total : 36.19% | 1-1 @ 12.75% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 5.09% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.83% | 0-1 @ 10.16% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.11% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 6.46% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.44% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.74% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.81% Total : 36.96% |
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