Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 74.26%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 8.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.57%) and 0-3 (10.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.96%), while for a Lithuania win it was 1-0 (3.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.
Result | ||
Lithuania | Draw | Serbia |
8.87% ( 0.24) | 16.87% ( 0.3) | 74.26% ( -0.54) |
Both teams to score 41.96% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.06% ( -0.55) | 44.93% ( 0.55) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.71% ( -0.53) | 67.29% ( 0.53) |
Lithuania Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
46.89% ( 0.18) | 53.11% ( -0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
13.28% ( 0.12) | 86.71% ( -0.12) |
Serbia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.48% ( -0.28) | 10.51% ( 0.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.8% ( -0.64) | 34.19% ( 0.64) |
Score Analysis |
Lithuania | Draw | Serbia |
1-0 @ 3.53% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 2.52% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.7% Total : 8.87% | 1-1 @ 7.96% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 5.58% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 2.84% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.49% Total : 16.87% | 0-2 @ 14.16% 0-1 @ 12.57% ( 0.15) 0-3 @ 10.63% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 8.96% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 6.73% ( -0.05) 0-4 @ 5.99% ( -0.15) 1-4 @ 3.79% ( -0.07) 0-5 @ 2.7% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0) 1-5 @ 1.71% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.02) 0-6 @ 1.01% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.66% Total : 74.24% |
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