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Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 10, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas
SN

Lithuania
1 - 3
Serbia

Paulauskas (45')
Cernych (23'), Paulauskas (35')
FT(HT: 1-3)
Mitrovic (21', 32', 43')
Zivkovic (38'), Milinkovic-Savic (84'), Mitrovic (90+1')

Form, Standings, Stats

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Lithuania 2-2 Montenegro
Thursday, September 7 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Serbia 1-2 Hungary
Thursday, September 7 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

We said: Lithuania 0-2 Serbia

Serbia should expect to do the double over lowly Lithuania, who simply cannot buy a win and could be bound for bottom place in Group G. The gulf in class between the teams will be apparent, but a dogged rearguard action by the home side may keep the scoreline respectable. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 74.26%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 8.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.57%) and 0-3 (10.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.96%), while for a Lithuania win it was 1-0 (3.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.

Result
LithuaniaDrawSerbia
8.87% (0.2389 0.24) 16.87% (0.302 0.3) 74.26% (-0.542 -0.54)
Both teams to score 41.96% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.06% (-0.55399999999999 -0.55)44.93% (0.554 0.55)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.71% (-0.53299999999999 -0.53)67.29% (0.533 0.53)
Lithuania Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
46.89% (0.185 0.18)53.11% (-0.185 -0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
13.28% (0.117 0.12)86.71% (-0.11799999999999 -0.12)
Serbia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.48% (-0.28400000000001 -0.28)10.51% (0.282 0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
65.8% (-0.645 -0.64)34.19% (0.644 0.64)
Score Analysis
    Lithuania 8.87%
    Serbia 74.24%
    Draw 16.87%
LithuaniaDrawSerbia
1-0 @ 3.53% (0.102 0.1)
2-1 @ 2.52% (0.057 0.06)
2-0 @ 1.12% (0.038 0.04)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 8.87%
1-1 @ 7.96% (0.137 0.14)
0-0 @ 5.58% (0.132 0.13)
2-2 @ 2.84% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 0.49%
Total : 16.87%
0-2 @ 14.16%
0-1 @ 12.57% (0.15 0.15)
0-3 @ 10.63% (-0.13 -0.13)
1-2 @ 8.96% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
1-3 @ 6.73% (-0.046 -0.05)
0-4 @ 5.99% (-0.148 -0.15)
1-4 @ 3.79% (-0.073 -0.07)
0-5 @ 2.7% (-0.101 -0.1)
2-3 @ 2.13% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-5 @ 1.71% (-0.053 -0.05)
2-4 @ 1.2% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-6 @ 1.01% (-0.05 -0.05)
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 74.24%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Lithuania 2-2 Montenegro
Thursday, September 7 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Hungary 2-0 Lithuania
Tuesday, June 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Lithuania 1-1 Bulgaria
Saturday, June 17 at 2pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Greece 0-0 Lithuania
Monday, March 27 at 5pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Serbia 2-0 Lithuania
Friday, March 24 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Estonia 2-0 Lithuania
Saturday, November 19 at 2pm in Baltic Cup
Last Game: Serbia 1-2 Hungary
Thursday, September 7 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Bulgaria 1-1 Serbia
Tuesday, June 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Serbia 3-2 Jordan
Friday, June 16 at 7.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Montenegro 0-2 Serbia
Monday, March 27 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Serbia 2-0 Lithuania
Friday, March 24 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: USA 1-2 Serbia
Thursday, January 26 at 3am in International Friendlies


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