SM
| Current League D2 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Estonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Malta | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estonia win with a probability of 54.18%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 23.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estonia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.38%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-2 (6.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estonia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estonia | Draw | Lithuania |
54.18% ( 0.01) | 22.13% ( 0) | 23.7% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 59.91% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.65% ( -0.02) | 39.34% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.31% ( -0.02) | 61.68% ( 0.02) |
| Estonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.46% ( -0.01) | 14.54% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.43% ( -0.01) | 42.57% ( 0.01) |
| Lithuania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.1% ( -0.02) | 29.9% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34% ( -0.03) | 65.99% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estonia | Draw | Lithuania |
| 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.38% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.08% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.27% ( -0)3-0 @ 5.2% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.79% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.02% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.5% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.83% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.17% ( -0)5-0 @ 0.97% Other @ 3.22% Total : 54.18% | 1-1 @ 10.12% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.89% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.35% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0)Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.13% | 1-2 @ 6.11% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.25% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.17% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.46% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.37% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.28% ( -0)Other @ 3.07% Total : 23.7% |
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