SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Serbia | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Hungary | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hungary win with a probability of 77.06%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 5.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hungary win was 2-0 with a probability of 18.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (17.81%) and 3-0 (12.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (8.65%), while for a Lithuania win it was 0-1 (3.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 18.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Hungary in this match.
| Result | ||
| Hungary | Draw | Lithuania |
77.06% ( 33.14) | 17.08% ( -4.62) | 5.85% ( -28.51) |
| Both teams to score 28.09% ( -41.7) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.27% ( -25.89) | 55.73% ( 25.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.13% ( -25.88) | 76.87% ( 25.88) |
| Hungary Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.24% ( 1.74) | 12.76% ( -1.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.98% ( 3.48) | 39.02% ( -3.47) |
| Lithuania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 32.19% ( -49.42) | 67.81% ( 49.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 5.85% ( -44.63) | 94.15% ( 44.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hungary | Draw | Lithuania |
| 2-0 @ 18.33% ( 13.36) 1-0 @ 17.81% ( 12.66)3-0 @ 12.58% ( 9.38)2-1 @ 7.13% ( -1.29)4-0 @ 6.48% ( 4.94)3-1 @ 4.89% ( -0.53)5-0 @ 2.67% ( 2.07)4-1 @ 2.52% ( -0.1)5-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 0.95% ( -3.64)6-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.72)Other @ 1.74% Total : 77.05% | 0-0 @ 8.65% ( 5.99) 1-1 @ 6.92% ( -1.8)2-2 @ 1.38% ( -5.75)Other @ 0.13% Total : 17.08% | 0-1 @ 3.36% ( -1.15) 1-2 @ 1.34% ( -6.04)Other @ 1.15% Total : 5.85% |
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