Ukraine
2 - 1
N. Macedonia

Yarmolenko (29'), Yaremchuk (34')
Shaparenko (43')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Alioski (57')
Velkovski (59'), Avramovski (83')

Build‑up

Andriy Shevchenko: 'We were given a scare by North Macedonia'

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 37.38%. A win for North Macedonia had a probability of 36.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 1-0 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.14%). The likeliest North Macedonia win was 0-1 (8.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ukraine would win this match.

Result
Ukraine	Draw	North Macedonia
37.38%	25.71%	36.91%

Both teams to score 55.24%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.1%

48.9%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.01%

70.99%

Ukraine Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.46%

25.55%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.59%

60.41%

North Macedonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.19%

25.81%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.23%

60.77%

Score Analysis

Ukraine 37.38%

North Macedonia 36.91%

Draw 25.71%

Ukraine	Draw	North Macedonia
1-0 @ 9% 2-1 @ 8.32% 2-0 @ 6.14% 3-1 @ 3.78% 3-0 @ 2.79% 3-2 @ 2.56% 4-1 @ 1.29% 4-0 @ 0.95% Other @ 2.55% Total : 37.38%	1-1 @ 12.18% 0-0 @ 6.59% 2-2 @ 5.63% 3-3 @ 1.16% Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.71%	0-1 @ 8.93% 1-2 @ 8.25% 0-2 @ 6.05% 1-3 @ 3.73% 0-3 @ 2.73% 2-3 @ 2.54% 1-4 @ 1.26% 0-4 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.49% Total : 36.91%