Accrington have a habit of scoring goals against the visitors, a trend we expect to continue in the cup this weekend.
There are a lot of issues both on and off the pitch at Swindon at the moment, so we think Accrington will edge a tight encounter.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 46.94%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 28.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.92%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 2-1 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%).
0.15) 
-0.16) 
