Although the previous meeting between the two sides ended in a dominant victory for Exeter, a lot has changed since then and with Port Vale in better form, they should progress to the next round.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 51.43%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Exeter City win it was 0-1 (7.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
