Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 49.79%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 26.7% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
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