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FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 7, 2024 at 2pm UK
The Hawthorns
AT

West Brom
4 - 1
Aldershot

Chalobah (7'), Malcolm (15'), Dike (27'), Fellows (88')
Chalobah (39')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Bray (90+5')
Harries (33'), Widdrington (35'), Widdrington (35')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Swansea 1-0 West Brom
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Woking 2-3 Aldershot
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in National League

We said: West Bromwich Albion 2-0 Aldershot Town

Aldershot have beaten two League Two sides in this season's competition, but the step-up in class here will be big, and we are expecting West Brom to have too much quality for their National League opponents in Sunday's third-round contest in the FA Cup. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a West Bromwich Albion win with a probability of 70.15%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Aldershot Town had a probability of 12%.

The most likely scoreline for a West Bromwich Albion win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.26%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.45%), while for an Aldershot Town win it was 0-1 (3.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that West Bromwich Albion would win this match.

Result
West Bromwich AlbionDrawAldershot Town
70.15% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07) 17.84% (0.024999999999999 0.02) 12% (0.046999999999999 0.05)
Both teams to score 50.34% (0.071000000000005 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.87% (0.013000000000005 0.01)40.13% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.5% (0.014000000000003 0.01)62.5% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)
West Bromwich Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.73% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)10.27% (0.012 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.35% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)33.64% (0.029000000000003 0.03)
Aldershot Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.1% (0.087999999999994 0.09)43.9% (-0.089999999999996 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.96% (0.068999999999999 0.07)80.04% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)
Score Analysis
    West Bromwich Albion 70.15%
    Aldershot Town 12%
    Draw 17.84%
West Bromwich AlbionDrawAldershot Town
2-0 @ 11.67% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-0 @ 10.26% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.61% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-0 @ 8.86% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-1 @ 7.29%
4-0 @ 5.04% (-0.015 -0.01)
4-1 @ 4.15% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 3% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
5-0 @ 2.29% (-0.008 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.89% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.71% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 4.37%
Total : 70.15%
1-1 @ 8.45% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.51% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 3.96% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 0.93%
Total : 17.84%
0-1 @ 3.71% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
1-2 @ 3.48% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 1.53% (0.006 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.09% (0.006 0.01)
1-3 @ 0.96% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 1.24%
Total : 12%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Swansea 1-0 West Brom
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: West Brom 1-0 Leeds
Friday, December 29 at 8.15pm in Championship
Last Game: West Brom 1-0 Norwich
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Middlesbrough 1-0 West Brom
Saturday, December 23 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: West Brom 1-1 Stoke
Sunday, December 17 at 12pm in Championship
Last Game: Rotherham 0-2 West Brom
Tuesday, December 12 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Woking 2-3 Aldershot
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in National League
Last Game: Aldershot 0-0 Woking
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in National League
Last Game: Chesterfield 4-1 Aldershot
Saturday, December 23 at 3pm in National League
Last Game: Aldershot 3-5 Eastleigh
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in National League
Last Game: Stockport 0-1 Aldershot
Wednesday, December 13 at 7.45pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Aldershot 2-2 Stockport
Sunday, December 3 at 2pm in FA Cup


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