SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 47.33%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.86%) and 3-2 (5.05%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Ajax |
47.33% ( 0.04) | 20.8% ( -0) | 31.87% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 72.24% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.74% ( 0.01) | 26.26% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.45% ( 0.01) | 46.55% ( -0.01) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.96% ( 0.02) | 12.04% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.48% ( 0.03) | 37.52% ( -0.03) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.13% ( -0.01) | 17.87% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.35% ( -0.02) | 48.65% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 8.3% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.86% ( 0)3-2 @ 5.05% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.82% ( 0)1-0 @ 4.56% 3-0 @ 3.4% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.1% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.67% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.8% ( 0)4-3 @ 1.53% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.31% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.13% ( 0)Other @ 3.79% Total : 47.33% | 1-1 @ 7.84% ( -0) 2-2 @ 7.15% ( -0)3-3 @ 2.9% 0-0 @ 2.15% ( -0)Other @ 0.77% Total : 20.8% | 1-2 @ 6.75% ( -0) 2-3 @ 4.1% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.88% ( -0)0-1 @ 3.7% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.19% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.83% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.77% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.67% ( -0)3-4 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 3.73% Total : 31.87% |
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