SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 54.69%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 24.35% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.99%) and 1-0 (6.65%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-3 win for AC Milan in this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | AC Milan |
54.69% ( 0.56) | 20.95% ( -0.13) | 24.35% ( -0.44) |
| Both teams to score 65.05% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.04% ( 0.15) | 32.96% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.32% ( 0.17) | 54.67% ( -0.17) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.77% ( 0.21) | 12.23% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.08% ( 0.44) | 37.92% ( -0.44) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.11% ( -0.24) | 25.88% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.13% ( -0.32) | 60.86% ( 0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | AC Milan |
| 2-1 @ 9.45% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.06)1-0 @ 6.65% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 4.9% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.48% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 2.57% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 2.35% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.03)4-3 @ 1.06% ( 0)5-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.64% Total : 54.69% | 1-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.38% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.4% Total : 20.95% | 1-2 @ 6.07% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 4.28% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.74% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.3% Total : 24.35% |
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