Man United are not expected to be at full strength on Sunday, but there will still be plenty of familiar faces, and the Red Devils have such a strong squad that it should be a very competitive fixture. Athletic have goals in them but can also be suspect defensively, so we are predicting a high-scoring draw here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 45.93%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 29.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
-0.91) 
0.26) 
