This is a big match in Spain's top flight, as both teams have ambitions of securing European football for next season. Athletic are capable of pulling off a positive result, but their defensive absentees have led to us siding with Villarreal, who have won 10 of their 16 home league games this term.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 37.35%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 36.07% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
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