Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 39.62%. A win for Amorebieta had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.04%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest Amorebieta win was 1-0 (10.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Eibar would win this match.
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