Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 47.78%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 24.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.55%) and 2-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.68%), while for a Sporting Gijon win it was 0-1 (9.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
-0.78) 
0.19) 
