Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 60.8%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Amorebieta had a probability of 16.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.66%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.66%), while for an Amorebieta win it was 0-1 (5.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Eibar in this match.
