SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 40.38%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 34.84% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.37%) and 2-0 (6.31%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-2 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
40.38% ( 0.11) | 24.77% ( 0.03) | 34.84% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 58.32% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.17% ( -0.13) | 44.83% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.82% ( -0.13) | 67.18% ( 0.13) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.84% ( -0) | 22.16% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.45% ( -0) | 55.55% ( 0) |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.92% ( -0.14) | 25.08% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.23% ( -0.19) | 59.77% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2-1 @ 8.73% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.37% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 6.31% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.38% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.03% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.65% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.14% ( -0)Other @ 2.4% Total : 40.38% | 1-1 @ 11.58% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.77% | 1-2 @ 8.01% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.69% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.32% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.69% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.67% Total : 34.84% |
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