SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 53.88%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 22.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.78%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Barnsley |
53.88% ( 0.53) | 24.06% ( -0.02) | 22.06% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 51.39% ( -0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.36% ( -0.44) | 49.64% ( 0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.34% ( -0.39) | 71.66% ( 0.4) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.66% ( 0.04) | 18.34% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.55% ( 0.06) | 49.45% ( -0.06) |
| Barnsley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.94% ( -0.73) | 37.06% ( 0.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.15% ( -0.73) | 73.84% ( 0.73) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Barnsley |
| 1-0 @ 11.52% ( 0.22) 2-0 @ 9.78% ( 0.2)2-1 @ 9.7% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 5.49% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 2.34% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 2.33% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.31% Total : 53.87% | 1-1 @ 11.44% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.06% | 0-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.68% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.71% Total : 22.06% |
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