SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 33.28% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.81%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Bolton Wanderers win was 2-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Stoke City |
33.28% ( -0.03) | 24.91% ( 0.02) | 41.81% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 57.41% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.17% ( -0.09) | 45.83% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.85% ( -0.09) | 68.15% ( 0.08) |
| Bolton Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.52% ( -0.06) | 26.48% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.33% ( -0.08) | 61.67% ( 0.08) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.09% ( -0.04) | 21.91% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.83% ( -0.05) | 55.17% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Stoke City |
| 2-1 @ 7.78% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.71% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.12% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.44% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.27% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.2% Total : 33.28% | 1-1 @ 11.7% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.91% | 1-2 @ 8.89% 0-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.5% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.38% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.71% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.29% 2-4 @ 1.13% ( -0)Other @ 2.43% Total : 41.81% |
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